Another take on the Super Bowl (as if there haven’t been enough already)

Well, it’s only been 3 months since my last post. It’s been busy times, and there are other subjects I hope to tackle soon. I am hoping doing this relatively short post will get me motivated to write more often.

Maybe the best aspect of sports is that no matter what we think is going to happen, we don’t know until the game is played. And while I thought the Philadelphia Eagles were going to win Super Bowl LIX in a close game (My rationale, FWIW, was that the Eagles were better at every position except QB and coach. I thought that would be enough to carry them through), like every else, I was quite surprised at the result. I’ve heard everyone talking about the dominance of the Eagles defensive line, and they no doubt were excellent. But I believe this game was won before it ever started. Having thought about what happened on Sunday, I propose below what I think may have happened. I’m presenting it because I haven’t heard anyone else state the same explanation (although some that I didn’t read or hear may have).

From the Chiefs perspective, I believe they were viewing this game as a coronation. Unlike last year, when most believed that KC wasn’t going to get to the Super Bowl let alone win it, this year everyone was on board. I almost think that their attitude was that the win and the three-peat was inevitable. From the beginning, they didn’t appear to be locked in, and once they fell behind, doubt and eventually shock creeped in. After Mahomes’ pick 6, I think the team was in denial, as in “this can’t be happening; we’re the Chiefs, and we’re supposed to win this game.” At 17-0 Philly, the game was, for all intents and purposes, over. The Chiefs were unable to adjust, either strategically or emotionally.

In contrast, the Eagles, despite being only 1.5-point underdogs, heard everyone saying that the game was in the bag for the Chiefs. They had a chip on their collective shoulder, one which was likely stoked by head coach Nick Sirianni. The Eagles were not intimidated by KC; they nearly beat them in Super Bowl LVII and beat them in Kansas City in 2023. They came to New Orleans hungry, motivated, and prepared. And they played their butts off and dominated the Chiefs. A tremendous performance.

In coming to these conclusions, I recalled an article written by Bill James in the 1986 Baseball Abstract regarding the 1985 World Series between the Kansas City Royals and the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals were a big favorite, and basically everyone assumed their victory was a foregone conclusion. And for 5 games an 8 innings, despite being outplayed, they were on the verge of winning it. But the Royals rallied in the bottom of the 9th inning of game 6 to win it 2-1. After the game, the Cardinals blamed the loss on the first base umpire, who missed a close call in that inning and called Jorge Orta safe at first on an infield ground ball. The Cardinals were clearly shaken by this defeat, thinking that they were destined to win. They took the field for game 7 in a fog, and the Royals, who never gave up even though everyone else had, destroyed the Cardinals. 11-0 to win the series. In my opinion, this outcome was very analogous to what happened in Super Bowl LIX.

Another aspect that fascinates me is how the sports media reacted to this game. During the season, as the Chiefs rattled off one close victory after another, the question was whether the 2024 Chiefs were one of the greatest teams of all time. In the aftermath of the Super Bowl, the take by the same media members was that it had been clear all season that the Chiefs succeeded despite their weaknesses on the O-line. It was almost as if the Chiefs had overachieved to get to the Super Bowl. Of course. the reality was that indeed the Chiefs weren’t great during the regular season, having won every close game. Yes, it’s true that they remained composed and had belief at the end of these games, but they also got some breaks (as in the game-winning FG against the Chargers which hit the upright and bounced through and the game against the Las Vegas in which Aidan O’Connell fumbled the snap with the Raiders in range to attempt a game-winning FG). The media will claim that the great teams are the ones that win the close games, but in reality, the truly great teams are the ones that have few close games and many convincing victories. This year’s Chiefs team was certainly very good but definitely not great. I do expect them to be good again next year, and it’s well within the realm of possibility that they make it back to the Super Bowl next year. And based on 2024 results, their schedule appears to be the easiest of any of the contenders (admittedly, that may not hold, but it’s true at this point nonetheless), and strength of schedule is something that is never mentioned by the so-called experts. In fact, one of the reasons they were able to get the #1 seed in the AFC in 2024 was due to the fact that their schedule was not particularly difficult. But that being said, this loss knocked some of the luster off of the perceived invincibility of the Chiefs. We’ll see if some of the other AFC teams (my Ravens, perhaps) can capitalize in 2025.

#Super Bowl

#Philadalphia Eagles

#Kansas City Chiefs

#Bill James

#The Bill James Baseball Abstract